Posted by admin | Posted in Model Railway | Posted on 15-09-2008
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Heart Of Earnings, Jobs In Focus
A busy week of both earnings and economic data will culminate with the release of the Employment report on Friday.
Earnings Preview 1/29/10
Next week is the heart of the 4Q09 earnings season. There will be a total of 494 firms reporting including 97 members of the S&P 500. These will include such bellwethers as ExxonMobil (XOM), Time Warner (TWX), Kraft (KFT), Cisco (CSCO) and Dow Chemical (DOW).
In addition to being a busy week on the earnings front, it will also be jam-packed with important economic data, culminating with the Employment Report.
Monday
• Data on Personal Income and Spending is released. Personal Income is expected to have risen 0.3% in December down from a 0.4% increase in November. Personal spending is expected to have increased 0.2% following a 0.5% rise in November (the numbers are seasonally adjusted). If income is rising more than spending, it means that the savings rate will rise, reversing last month’s dip. Savings is a major conundrum -- over the long term a low savings rate is very bad for the economy, but in the short term a rising savings rate hurts the economy. Right now, we have a very low savings rate, and a still-weak economy.
• Construction spending is expected to decline 0.3% after a 0.6% decline in November. I suspect it will be somewhat worse than the consensus expects, especially non-residential spending.
• The ISM manufacturing Survey is expected to come in at 56.7 for January, up from 55.9 in December. Any reading over 50 indicates that the manufacturing sector is expanding, so the consensus is looking for an acceleration in that sector of the economy.
Tuesday
• Auto and truck sales will be released for January. In December they were running at an annualized rate of 4.14 million for Cars and 4.49 million for Trucks.
Wednesday
• The ADP preview of the employment report is released. In December it was almost exactly on target with an estimate of a loss of 84,000 jobs, but such accuracy is rare, especially relative to the first take on the employment numbers.
• The ISM services index is expected to show that the economy outside of manufacturing is also expanding, but at a much slower rate than the manufacturing side of the economy. A reading of 51.0 is expected up from the dead-in-the-water, no-movement reading of 50.1 in December.
Thursday
• Weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance come out. They fell 8,000 in the last week, but before that (except of the week before) were in a very steep downtrend. Last week there were 470,000 initial claims. Look for the decline to resume. Continuing claims have also been in a steep downtrend of late. However that is in part due to people simply exhausting their regular state benefits which run out after 26 weeks. If one factors in the extended claims paid by the Federal government as part of the Stimulus program, claims soared last week. Looking at just the regular continuing claims numbers is a serious mistake. They only include a little over half of the unemployed now given the unprecedentedly high duration of unemployment figures. Last week, regular continuing claims were 4.602 million while extended claims (paid from Federal ARRA funds) were 5.612 million. Make sure to look at both sets of numbers!
Friday
• We get the Big Kahuna of economic reports, the Employment report. Non-farm payrolls are expected to increase by 50,000. That would be a very nice turnaround from the 85,000 jobs lost in December. The other major numbers in the report, such as the unemployment rate (10.0%), average work week (33.2 hours) and growth in average hourly earnings (+0.2%) are all expected to be unchanged. Key things to look for in the details will be the number of temporary jobs added, and the measures of unemployment duration such as the median time people who are unemployed have been looking for work.
• Consumer Credit is expected to have fallen by $9.2 billion in December on top of a record shattering $17.5 billion decline in November. Any decline is consumer credit is highly unusual. This report does not include real estate backed debt like mortgages. It tracks revolving debt like credit cards and non-revolving debt like auto loans.
Potential Positive Surprises
Historically, the best indicators of firms likely to report positive surprises are a recent history of positive surprises and rising estimates going into the report. The Zacks Rank is also a good indicator of potential surprises. While normally firms that report better-than-expected earnings rise in reaction, that has not been the case so far this quarter. Some of the companies that have these characteristics include:
Gannett (GCI) is expected to report EPS of $0.63, down from $0.85 per share a year ago. Last time out, GCI posted a positive surprise of 15.79%, and over the last month the mean estimate for its fourth quarter earnings is up 0.96%. GCI has a Zacks Rank of 1.
Polo Ralph Lauren (RL) is expected to report EPS before non-recurring items of $1.00, down from $1.05 a year ago. In the 3Q, RL posted a positive surprise of 37.40% and over the last month, the consensus estimate for its 4Q earnings is up 3.33%. RL is a Zacks #2 ranked stock.
Whirlpool (WHR) is expected to earn $1.30 per share this year, up from $0.60 a year ago. In the third quarter they blew the estimates out of the water (no pun intended) with a massive 114.3% positive surprise. Over the last month, the mean estimate for the 4Q is up 2.9%. WHR holds a coveted Zacks #1 rank.
Potential Negative Surprises
FMC Corp (FMC) is expected to post EPS of $0.90 a share, down from a EPS of $1.02 a share a year ago. Last time they reported 0.33% below expectations. For this Zacks #4 ranked stock, analysts have not changed the estimates for this quarter over the last month.
NI Source (NI) is expected to earn $0.36 a share this quarter, down from $0.46 last year. They disappointed by 999% last time out (reported a loss when a gain was expected), and analysts have cut the estimate for this quarter by 14.48% over the last month. The stock holds a Zacks Rank of 4.
Sunoco (SUN) is expected to report a loss of $0.26 down from EPS of $2.68 last year. The oil refiner disappointed by 222.2% (also a loss instead of a gain) last time out, and over the past month analysts have cut the estimate for this number 4 ranked stock by 55.75%.
About the Author
Dirk van Dijk, CFA is the Chief Equity Strategist for Zacks.com. With more than 25 years investment experience he has become a popular commentator appearing in the Wall Street Journal and on CNBC. Dirk is also the Editor in charge of the market-beating Zacks Strategic Investor service. For more information, visit http://www.zacks.com.